I can handle it

The thing I love most about writing (including blogging) is it helps me pinpoint things that I don’t always bother to reflect on in my other day to day activities.  In my recession rant, I concluded with this paragraph “I think I do it because of my general lack of confidence in my ability to deal with whatever life may throw at me on the fly.  So I prepare.  I save an emergency fund, I have plans A-F, and I worry.”

As if on cue, Seth Godin’s post showed up in my RSS feed with a concise (as always) argument that panicking is foolish and there is no need for an abundance of caution.  I realized I’ve been living by “Might as well panic” for the past month or so.  And this is the wrong approach.

If my task ends, I need to trust my manager to do what he can to find me a new task.  That’s his job, and he’s working on it!  I have an interview sometime with someone at a different site, but having just moved, it would make my commute about 40 miles.  So, non-ideal, but I can at least consider it.  He also claimed he’s looking at something at this site, but gave me no details yet.  He’s doing his job.  He wants to keep me around.  I wanted a new task anyway, this is just a bit more of a rough transition.

If there seriously is no work at my company for me, I need to trust myself to be able to find other work at a new company.  I need to get over my “woe is me, I just want a stable position for a couple years” and trust that it’ll be good.  Maybe even better.

If I can never ever find a job in my field again (extremely unlikely!) I need to trust that I’ll still be ok.   I’ll do something else.  I’m a quick study, I know how to work hard.  It will be ok.  I can handle it.  I can’t handle EVERYTHING, but most things that have a good chance of happening, I can handle.

Caution is ok, and if suspending my ROTH IRA for a couple months helps me sleep, I’ll do it.  But all the rest of the worry is totally un-actionable.

I’ve initiated several major changes in my life.  It has always been a little scary at first, but it has always turned out for the better.  When change is initiated by someone else, it is even more scary. But that doesn’t mean it won’t still be for the better.  Change is ok, and it is inevitable.  I better work on learning that now, because I have a lot of living left to do.

I’m so over this recession

I haven’t said much on this, but I haven’t exactly been subtle either.  There are going to be layoffs at my job again.  Not officially, but it is pretty evident what is coming, the questions are “how many?”, “when?” and “who?”.  The task I’ve been on is ending mid-summer, and we are all looking to find something new to keep us gainfully employed.

I went through a phase of anger at the economy and feeling indignant that I might get laid off.  I highly doubt I’m in the bottom X% of the company, but if your task ends, it isn’t so likely they are going to lay off some other worker who has a task, even if they aren’t quite as good.  But I’ve mostly moved out of my mopey phases and into action mode.  Though, still slipping back into mopey on occasion.

The good news (if you can call i that) is that my manager forecasts that layoffs will happen in August (with 60 day notices coming right up in June).  So there is some time.  But not a lot of time.

Here are my current possibilities

1. Internal position at/near where I currently work:  There really aren’t many right now, and I’m not the only one who is gunning for this, but there is a chance.  This would be the ideal situation.  Supposedly I’m being considered for one and am supposed to be contacted, but… I haven’t been contacted. Maybe they realized that my job experinece isn’t what they want?
2. Internal position a somewhat crappy commute away from where I currently live.
3. External position near where I currently live/work.
4. External position + crappy commute
5. Collect unemployment until one of the above options pans out
6. If timing is perfect, take 10 weeks off (unpaid) and complete my M.S. (paid) in one very stressful quarter.  Then, try 1-4 again.  (I don’t think timing will work for this though.)

My ultimate career goal right now (besides the M.S. degree) is to get into a position involving the skills I want to develop and stay there a minimum of 2 years, long enough to become an expert, a capable leader, and to determine if I want to go for an MBA.  But if that isn’t possible, then what?

Given option 2 and 3  both, I’m not sure which I prefer.  Driving further would be a pain, and I’d probably try to move back to this site as soon as possible–which isn’t optimal.  But neither is starting new at another company.  Assuming a new company is even hiring.  Our closest competitor is facing similar layoffs and I have a few friends there who are worried themselves.

I have a habit of jumping to negative conclusions and preparing for the worst case scenario.  I doubt that is the best strategy.  I think I do it because of my general lack of confidence in my ability to deal with whatever life may throw at me on the fly.  So I prepare.  I save an emergency fund, I have plans A-F, and I worry.  I try to put on a brave face, but it is difficult and scary.  I just want to keep my job.

Tell Me Something Good

I’ve not really been “feeling” the blogging lately.  Besides realizing that most of my blog ideas can fit into 140 characters (thus, I just Twitter them), things have not been good lately.  When things are not good, I like to quietly gather my thoughts and try to figure out how I can make them good again.  And, you know, I still haven’t figured it out.

I can muster up lists of expenses, monthly goals, and net worth calculations. I just about killed the whole “yay, I have a new apartment!” topic.  I’d apologize, but there are a million blogs out there, and I’m not going to pretend that anyone is sitting at my blog page incessantly hitting refresh waiting for new content to appear.

Whether or not I should be (logically, I deduce “no”… or “maybe”.  Emotionally, I come up with “yes!!!”), I’m terrified of getting laid off in the next 1-6 months.  Though I did the math, and it will be ok no matter what, I am the kind of girl who likes a sense of security.  Even if it is a false one.

Mostly due to that alone (but also due to school, moving, and general work issues), I’ve been very stressed out the past couple weeks.  Not in that obvious “I want to burst into tears” way, but in this “millions of doubts gnawing at my soul” sort of way.  Which I think is worse, but I’m not really sure.

To change the subject from stress to goodness, I’ll talk about the good things I can think of right now.  When we first started dating, we would play the “Tell me something good” game and talk cloyingly about how great it was to be in love, how amazing life was, and how lucky we were.  I’m sure the conversations would have been naseauting to an observer (not that there were observers), but you know, I could kind of go for some of that “I’m so lucky!” feeling right now.

So, Good Things:

• We’ve got plans to celebrate a friends birthday this weekend with some good good beer.
• Things with T have been nothing but fabulous, and he’s super supportive and helpful and awesome.
• Despite the crazy moving expenses, I’m going to be able to contribute to savings this month (only because of 3 paycheck month and some cash back bonus, but still).
• Plane tickets are so ridiculously cheap that I might be able to sneak back home to see my family this summer/fall for under $200.  I had a ticket booked for $50 (round trip, no joke!), but the site crapped out, had an inventory error, and I gave up.
• My little nephew is all potty-trained.
• I have a new apartment even closer to the beach than I was before.
• I have a dishwasher.
• I have a bedroom with a door and more than one kitchen cabinet to store my food.  Even the silverware drawer seems spacious!
• It is Friday!  Even if I have a lot of school work to do this weekend, it is still the weekend!
• My dad, who has been affected by the recession the past couple months, told me he has not one, but two, job offers.
• I have a nice bottle of Pinot Nior sitting on my wine shelf.
• I’ll be done taking classes for my M.S. by the end of this year.
• Maybe next weekend, we can go camping.  If not, we probably can at least go for a good hike.
• No matter what happens, I’ve spent 2.5 years living carefully and it will be ok.

So, your turn.  Tell me something good!

Worst Case

I have a feeling the layoffs will be hitting my company again in the near-ish future.  Will I be “safe”?  Well, I think so.   My manager seems to be on my side, my “ratings” were really good, my skills are somewhat diverse…  Blah, blah blah.  I don’t know, when layoffs happen, the worst case seems to be something like 10% of the workforce at a time.  I don’t think my performance or skill set is in the bottom 10% (or even 25%) of what my company needs. But I don’t know that for sure.  I think most people who are laid off don’t see it coming.

So yeah, I think I’ll be safe, yet I can’t help to take stock of the worst case scenario.

• If I get laid off, I get a 60 day notices and some (very minimal since I’ve only been here 1 year) severance pay
• In California, I qualify for $450/week in  unemployment.  While a fraction of what I make now, it is enough to help out.  I figure a good chunk of this would go towards some sort of COBRA health payments.
• Starting in June, I’ll pay only $900/mo in rent (opposed to $1425).  If needed, T could pay up to $1000 and I could pay as little as $600.
• My efund is roughly at 8 months.  And I could obviously use my car fund and any other random cash I have lying around.
• The job market is extremely tight, but I think there are some jobs out there.  There is a lot of competition, I might have to drive further than I’d like.  But there are some jobs out there for skilled workers.  (Right??)

So that is the worst case, and the worst case doesn’t look all that bad.  In this economy, it is certainly possible that it will take some time to find a job.  And that is scary, and it sucks.  I’ve never been an adult in a recession, and the only times I was job seeking was when I was in pretty high demand.  So the worst case is scary, but everything should still be ok.

I don’t think it’ll come to that, and I hope it doesn’t, but this is the part where I thank the SP of 2-3 years ago for starting up an E-fund when times were good, and the SP of about 1 year ago for deciding to focus even more on cash savings.

I don’t want to hear about it

Whenever I hear anything about the economy, the stimulus package, the Dow, layoffs or even Obama, I immediately switch the radio from NPR to music.  I don’t care what kind of music, anything but talking about this.  I’m protecting my sanity and happiness,  because all listening to news does is make me worry.

I don’t want to see your Facebook status about the stimulus, nor an MSN name stating that the country is going to hell in a hand basket, with too many exclamation points.  (At least levity to the sentiment and say “where are we going, and why am I in this hand basket!?”)   Unless you are going to be some kind of political activist and actually do something, or unless I am voting in the near future in a way that can affect this, I just don’t want to hear your opinions on whether or not you think this is a good idea.  Last week, Ramit took the words right out my head and composed them into an articulate and pointed blog post in a way I never could:  Why your opinion on the stimulus plan doesn’t matter.

[On a similar note, my dad recently started told me about how the San Andreas fault is ready for a huge quake, and Mt St Helen's is going to erupt take out the Midwest.  I asked him what the point was of knowing this?  There is no actionable information (corporate speak).]

Almost any action that is taken, including taking no action, will be criticized.  No one really has the answers (scary).  All the options seem pretty bleak.  Yet, I remain I’m optimistic that we will pull through.  Because I don’t know what else to do, and optimism seems like the most rational choice.

If you have an opinion that suggests that my personal actions are incorrect, maybe I want to hear it. (Probably still, no.)  If you just want to tell me this stimulus is a horrible idea, don’t bother.   You need to start a blog. If there are readers who will read the minutia of my financial life (thanks guys!), there are people out there who will listen to a random guy’s/girl’s opinion on the economy.

In the meantime, I will be (cautiously) optimistic…  or I will use every cent I have towards a bunker in Montana and stock it with guns, food, ammo and wine.  [But what about Mt. Saint Helens?  Maybe Texas?  Is it safe there?]

Does your efund calm your fears?

The other day, my neighbor told me he has never paid his rent on time at our complex. He said it was “because of the way [his] paychecks lined up”, and paid $85 late fee each month. He also told me he never paid the bill we get for water, sewer, and trash, because “what are they going to do? Stop picking up the whole building’s trash?” So he simply ignores the bill. It sounded like he even called the company and asked them what they would do! Wow!

From that conversation, I concluded he was one of the many Americans living paycheck to paycheck. Do you think they worry more or less than those of us who are money obsessed focused, yet have cash in the bank? Well-Heeled has collected $21,200 cash, and is grateful, but still anxious about what may come. I wonder what amount in the bank would make me feel completely at ease? Fifty thousand? Would that do it?

I’ve reached my (revised) 2008 goal of $13,000 and am setting a new goal to reach $14,750 by the end of the year. If I save every dime (and find some extras), I could reach $15,000 by the end of December. That is my reach goal.

In terms of how long I would last if my income dried up, I’m not sure. I’d ride out my lease until February, then I’d move, presumably illegally (campus housing) in with T until we could move elsewhere (which is the longer term plan anyway). I could contribute “my share” of expenses for almost a year. If that were impossible, I would try for a different shared housing situation. Given all that, it is hard to figure out how long it would last.

Moving home would be a really poor option (2000+ miles!), but I do know that T have saved/invested like an 80 year old, thus has some cash reserves and would help if needed. It is surprising to realize that for the first time in my life, my parents wouldn’t be the first I’d turn to. But honestly, I think I could find a job before it would ever get to that.

What to do when the stock market drops

1. Look at the stock chart after lunch (1:00 pacific time) and say to yourself, “holy crap!”
2. Get back to work, and work late
3. Stop at Trader Joe’s and buy (among other things) a peppermint cheesecake for $1.99. That is pretty much the best calorie per dollar purchase ever. If a depression hits, I could live of that cheese cake for at least 2 days. Maybe I should have bought several.
4. Talk on the phone for an hour with your sister.
5. Cook dinner, then make some homemade soft pretzels. YUM.
6. Try to stop yourself from checking your retirement balance, but do it anyway, and close the window quickly.
7. Watch Gossip Girl, call your boyfriend, go to bed.

Well, that is what I did anyway. I don’t mean to imply that what is going on isn’t serious. It is. But no one (in the government) has called me and asked what I think we should do, so the fact that I don’t know for sure isn’t a real problem. This does affect me, but not in any way I can control. My fate, our fate, is in someone else’s hands right now.

If I do decide it is time to panic, what moves can I make? I’m not really concerned about my retirement account, I’m only concerned about my job (and the general job market). It seems like my best bet is just to go to work and wait and see. I could pull my money out of the bank, out of the market and put it in my mattress, or I can live my life.

Backpacking Success!

I hiked 16 miles this past weekend, and now that it is Tuesday, the soreness has subsided.  We had to carry all of the water we needed, because we heard there wasn’t any available along the way (not true!).

It wasn’t that cheap either, which was the whole idea of this backpacking hobby.  Still, it was very rewarding to reach the top.  (For the curious, we went up to San Jacinto Peak via the Fuller Ridge trail, and camped over night.)    It was so exhausting, but we had a really good time.  The thing I get most excited about is the stars.  They remind me of summer nights back home in the Midwest.  You just don’t see the same night skies in the city.  I might have been more impressed with the lit sky than the summit!

Here’s the estimated cost breakdown:

• Gas:  $50
• Adventure pass:  $30 (lasts a year, good for parking in many nearby state parks )
• Food: $40 (estimated).  It may have been a little less, but we did get a lot of lightweight high calorie stuff.  Those sports bars aren’t cheap, and we also got some dried fruit and jerky.  We had leftovers, but you have to bring extra.
• Socks: $15, I needed another pair of wool socks
• Disposable Camera:  $10 (i forgot my memory card.  Dumb!)

That is about $100 in things that will not be reused (gas, camera, food), which isn’t that bad after all since T paid for half.  It isn’t that bad, but I’m not making my budget this month, even though I suspended my Roth IRA contribution.  That is sad!  I’ve given up, though I’m still watching my spending.  Spending seems much more normal now, and I’m optimistic for October.

I determined definitely need insoles for my hiking boots (maybe my running ones will fit as well).  My knee was acting up big time on the steep downhill switchbacks.  I’m glad that I know the reason (overpronation) and a likely fix (insoles).  I think I’ll switch health plans next year and try to see an official foot doctor about it, but it is prohibitively expensive on my current plan.  For now, store bought insoles should suffice.  Maybe I should be wearing them every day, but I don’t do that much walking at work.

Economy side note:
This see-saw market makes me nervous, as does the bailout plan.  This weekend on APM’s Marketplace Money, John Bogle was interviewed.  While he said we shouldn’t be panicking, he also said “if you aren’t worried, you aren’t paying attention.”  I almost wish I wasn’t paying attention!  By the way, NPR has a new Planet Money podcast, which attempts to help us make sense of what is going on in Washington and on Wall Street.  Highly recommended.

Good riddance, Summer

My retirement accounts balance the end of May: $27,839
My retirement account balance at the end of September 15th: $27,078

It’s too depressing. I’ve been putting somewhere around $1000 each month, and poof, it is vanished (plus it took another $900 along for the ride). An entire summer of saving, gone! I try hard not to be an emotional investor, but part of me feels like crying, or dying.

Say all you want about long term investing, how this is good for my future, how stocks are on sale, and the number of shares I own are going up. It still sucks emotionally. I’ve been inching towards $30k in retirement for the entire year.

I feel like I just can’t catch a break.

Equally depressing, my cash savings hasn’t even increased by $1000 since May. Summer of fun, I hate you. Good riddance, I’m glad you are over. Will fall be any better?

This American Life tackles the mortgage crisis

If you listen to podcasts, I think you should you check out a post Get Rich Slowly wrote today, The Giant Pool of Money: Anatomy of the Subprime Mortgage Mess.

J.D. talks about this week’s episode of “This American Life“, perhaps my favorite NPR show. I usually end up downloading it through a podcast, but I happened to catch this week’s episode on my way to pick up T on Friday. It was an excellent sort of friendly view of how this whole mortgage mess came to be.

The show starts out talking to a guy with several part time jobs who was loaned half a million by the bank, though he himself admits he has friends who are essentially loan sharks, and they wouldn’t have even lent him it. It goes on to talk to a young guy who was just out of college making $75,000 a month, and when that dropped to “just $25,000″ it didn’t even cover his current expenses. It talks about how the financial industry is handing out awards for creating product that almost brought down the entire economy. It talks about NINA loans, or “No Income, No Assets” where banks didn’t ask how much you made or how much you had in the bank before writing you a loan. It explains how many people knew that what they were doing wasn’t sustainable, but figured it was the problem of someone higher up on the chain.

J.D. took a lot more time than I could and wrote a great summary, so please read his post and consider listening to the episode!